EMEA Economic Comment: Poland: NBP stays on hold

Research evidence excerpt

EMEA Economic Comment: Poland: NBP stays on hold

Global Research

8 July 2026ab

EMEA Economic Comment Economics

EMEA EmergingPoland: NBP stays on hold

Anna Zadornova

Economist

NBP keeps rates unchanged amid easing inflation pressures anna.zadornova@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 4212

The NBP kept the policy rate unchanged at 3.75%, in line with consensus and our

expectations. The press release from the MPC noted that energy commodity prices had Nimrod Mevorach

Strategistdeclined since the previous meeting, with a significant fall in oil prices, while

nimrod.mevorach@ubs.com

highlighting that growth in Poland's main trading partners remains subdued. The +44-20-7567 0779

council also pointed to lower inflation in June, with CPI falling to 2.5%y/y from 3.1%y/y

in May, mainly due to lower fuel and food price inflation. On the domestic side, the MPC

highlighted continued growth in retail sales, industrial production and construction

output, while noting slower wage growth and ongoing declines in enterprise

employment. The statement continued to emphasize uncertainty around the global

outlook, particularly related to developments in the Middle East. Guidance was

unchanged, with future decisions remaining dependent on incoming data and the

outlook for inflation and economic activity.

Updated NBP forecasts show higher inflation, softer growth

The NBP revised its inflation forecasts higher relative to the March projection. Under the

assumption of unchanged interest rates, inflation is projected at 2.4%-3.3% in 2026,

up from 1.6%-2.9% previously, while the 2027 forecast was raised to 1.5%-4.0% from

1.1%-3.7%; (UBSe 2.7%, 2.6%). The NBP expects inflation in 2028 to average 0.8%-

3.9%, broadly unchanged from the previous projection. At the same time, GDP