First Read Alibaba Group 1QFY27 preview; re-focus on AI angle as earnings bottoming out

Research evidence excerpt

First Read Alibaba Group 1QFY27 preview; re-focus on AI angle as earnings bottoming out

ce and 03/28E 47.86 50.91 6 62.05

Trendyol UE improve amid more prudent expansion. 03/29E 60.71 63.89 5 79.35

Kenneth Fong

4) All others: We estimate EBITA loss at Rmb17bn (Mar Q's Rmb21bn), with losses likely Analyst

peaked after one-off Qwen ToC app CNY red packet campaign, albeit still elevated given kenneth-kc.fong@ubs.com

continued model training and launches (e.g. WanXiang 2.7, Qwen 3.7-Max, and +852-3712 3890

robotics model suite) and increased Qwen ToC app usage. Sardonna Fong

Analyst

Key focuses into the result sardonna.fong@ubs.com

1) TTG monetization: Despite macro softness, mgmt has pivoted to prioritize margins +852-3712 3042

over topline growth, also indicated in our merchant checks (link). We believe this should Wei Xiong

offer improved earnings visibility despite macro volatility. In addition, with Qwen chatbot Analyst

app increasingly integrated with TTG, the potential upside to take rate would also be S1460518100005

monitored. wei.xiong@ubs.com

+86-21-3866 8883

2) Quick commerce: Our channel checks suggest quick commerce subsidies have

continued optimizing at a faster pace than expected, further aided by the regulatory

pressure from SAMR (link) on banning long-term, large-scale subsidies and coercive

merchant/rider cost-sharing (seven-day promo notice). With that, we see potential

upside to mgmt guidance of narrowing quick commerce losses by half each in

Highlights (Rmbm) 03/24 03/25 03/26 03/27E 03/28E 03/29E 03/30E 03/31E

Revenues 941,168 996,347 1,023,670 1,131,933 1,256,839 1,388,728 1,547,122 1,744,852

EBIT (UBS) 143,436 163,562 71,482 90,746 120,241 152,995 162,709 183,504

Net earnings (UBS) 158,339 157,940 64,878 99,063 122,445 155,200 172,763 193,161