Subsidy Cuts Raise Questions, Not Immediate Conclusions

Research evidence excerpt

Subsidy Cuts Raise Questions, Not Immediate Conclusions

Update

July 8, 2026 01:46 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MHVAC - Heat Pumps | Europe Daniel Khajenouri

Equity Analyst

Subsidy Cuts Raise Questions, Daniel.Khajenouri@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley Europe S.E.+ +44 20 7425-3065

Claire A Thuerwaechter

EconomistNot Immediate Conclusions Claire.Thuerwaechter@morganstanley.com +49 69-21662842

Germany is reforming heat pump subsides down. While the Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Cedar Ekblom, CFA

Equity Analystchange is a clear long-term negative for Nibe and Ariston due to

Cedar.Ekblom@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-4623

weaker heat pump upgrade economics, the near-term outlook is

more nuanced, with the potential for demand to be pulled Building & Construction

Europe

forward ahead of subsidy reductions. Industry View In-Line

What Happened? - Germany’s planned reform of heat pump subsidies shifts the

support framework from a broad-based adoption incentive toward a more fiscally

constrained, income-targeted model. The current grant covers up to 70% of eligible

costs, capped at €21,000 for switching to a heat pump. The government reportedly

aims to save c.€2.1bn by 2030 with declines in grants in six-month steps, while

support for households earning below €30,000 would rise via an increase in the

income bonus from 30% to 40%. For middle- and higher-income households, the

subsidy reduction is material: ADAC cites planned declines by 2030 to €13,200

for households above €30,000 income, €8,800 for those above €40,000, and

€6,600 for those above €50,000. The proposal will be discussed in the budget

committee this week and is expected to be legislated after the parliamentary

summer break, potentially in September. See here and here.