India Electric Utilities: 1QFY27 Preview: Steady Quarter; Focus on Execution Outlook

Research evidence excerpt

India Electric Utilities: 1QFY27 Preview: Steady Quarter; Focus on Execution Outlook

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08 Jul 2026 04:51:34 ET │ 17 pages

India Electric Utilities

1QFY27 Preview: Steady Quarter; Focus on Execution Outlook

CITI'S TAKE

Mohit Pandey AC

We expect our electric utilities coverage to report a steady 1QFY27. 1Q had a +91-22-6175-9734

favourable demand backdrop - while day-time peaks were supported by mohit.pandey@citi.com

robust solar generation, the grid experienced non-solar hour strains,

resulting in night-time gaps in several instances. With the current capex Anusha Madireddy

cycle underway, the key debate in the sector remains around execution, and +91-22-6175-9866

whether medium-term demand / additions can surprise, leading to any anusha.madireddy@citi.com

policy interventions. Some interventions, such as the invocation of Section

11 of the Electricity Act, are already underway.

Power demand trends — Peak power demand in India saw a sharp increase in May

— at ~271GW, up ~10% vs. CY25 peak of 245GW (up ~17% vs. May25 peak). Base

power demand for 1Q grew ~9%YoY. While day-time peaks are largely met - aided by

solar generation providing over 25% of the mix- the grid faces tightness once solar

generation falls, leading to increase in exchange spot prices. Night-time power

tightness increased with ~4GW non-solar hour gap reported on 27th June.

Capex cycle chugging along — Backed by policy anchors (CEA resource adequacy

guidelines, long-term transmission plans), we estimate GENCO capacity additions

over FY26-32E will be 2.3-2.5x those of FY19-25 levels on our estimates, backed by

the requirement to meet time-of-day sensitivity of demand-supply dynamics. We

also see upgrades to distribution infrastructure. We see recent developments on