Risk Reward Update: BWP Trust | Asia Pacific

Research evidence excerpt

Risk Reward Update: BWP Trust | Asia Pacific

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– BWP Trust- BWP(BWP.AX)Trust (BWP.AX)

Path to improvement

PRICE TARGET A$4.20 EQUAL-WEIGHT THESIS

25/50/25 weighting to Bull/Base/Bear valuations (equal upside/downside risks as Australia BWP is entering a new phase after the

progresses post-COVID). successful management internalisation in

Aug '25, and extension of the majority of its

75/25 blend of DCF and NAV. Bunnings leases (pushing WALE out to a

more attractive 7+ years). This process

Base DCF (A$4.00): 9.0% CoE (0.75 beta), 6% ERP, and Base 3% Terminal Growth. should ultimately result in stronger cash

flow growth, stabilised occupancy, earnings

Base NAV (A$4.08): 0bps cap rate compression to BWP's portfolio, and an 8x multiple to certainty, and the ability for BWP to take a

corporate overheads. more active portfolio management approach

without the impedance of fees.

A$3.87

Consensus Price Target Distribution A$3.47 A$4.20 However, this transition also aligns with a

MS PT period of heightened vacancy and capex as

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates the final ex-Bunnings stores transition out of

the portfolio, creating an element of

execution risk. We see more stability from

RISK REWARD CHART FY28+, as current development projects

complete.

A$5.70A$5.70(+52.41%)A$5.70(+52.41%)(+52.41%)

AUD

Consensus Rating Distribution

4.8 13% Overweight

63% Equal-weight

A$4.20A$4.20(+12.30%)A$4.20(+12.30%)(+12.30%)

A$3.74A$3.74A$3.74 25% Underweight

3.6 MS Rating

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

A$3.05A$3.05(-18.45%)A$3.05(-18.45%)(-18.45%)

2.4

Risk Reward Themes

1.2 Self-help: Positive

Special Situation: Positive

View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

JUL '25 JAN '26 JUL '26 JUL '27