Bernstein‘s Transport & Airline Hot Shots: Truck rates rally; US blocks USMCA renewal; Railroads reach contracts; DOT airfare rule +

Research evidence excerpt

Bernstein‘s Transport & Airline Hot Shots: Truck rates rally; US blocks USMCA renewal; Railroads reach contracts; DOT airfare rule +

7 July 2026

Bernstein's Transport & Airline Hot Shots: Truck rates rally; US

blocks USMCA renewal; Railroads reach contracts; DOT airfare

rule +

David Vernon +1 917 344 8333 david.vernon@bernsteinsg.com

Justine Weiss +1 917 344 8433 justine.weiss@bernsteinsg.com

In the railroad business, “Hot Shot” trains are prioritized over other traffic as they move through the network. In our equity research business,

we are going to designate the most relevant pieces of news flow as “Hot Shots” and present them to you on a weekly basis. The goal here is to

elevate those events that we think deserve your attention and highlight how they impact our outlook.

THE WEEK AHEAD

Delta is kicking off earnings this Friday, July 10th, with all eyes on how they treat the guide and what portion of recent fare increases can be

retained as oil (maybe) normalizes.

PM SUMMARY

Routing guides continue to crumble, spot rates hit records, contract rates up 6.9% YoY. Higher highway costs are back with a

vengeance, driving pricing higher and increasing pressure to use lower cost alternatives like rail and intermodal.

US blocks 16-year USMCA renewal; decade-long countdown begins Unclear how USMCA eventually shakes out, but fair to think we are

at a nadir of sentiment on trade within North America.

Railroads quietly conclude collective bargaining. Railroads have certainty on labor cost and can focus on the hard part: dealing with better

volume.

FedEx expands Delivery Area Surcharges. Improves marginal economics in a small number of lower density zones; supportive of view that

FedEx is measuring success by $ not # of boxes.

Amazon Freight says truckload freight moving to LTL.