Fire and ICE: SA PGMs | Europe

Research evidence excerpt

Fire and ICE: SA PGMs | Europe

Idea

July 8, 2026 04:07 AM GMT

RMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited+MSA PGMs | Europe Brian Morgan

Equity Analyst

Fire and ICE Brian.Morgan3@rmbmorganstanley.comChristopher Nicholson +27 11 587-0803

Equity Strategist and Analyst

Christopher.Nicholson@rmbmorganstanley.com +27 11 587-0816

The withdrawal of investment demand from PGMs has

EEMEA - Metals & Mining

significantly improved the risk-reward, making the equities easier Europe

to justify now. We see downside commodity price risk in 2H but Industry View In-Line

think this presents opportunities. What’s Changed

Implats Limited (IMPJ.J) From To

Price Target ZAc 28,000 ZAc 20,000

Key Takeaways

Northam Platinum Limited

Speculative froth unwinds sharply as the 3e basket price falls 39% from 26 (NPHJ.J) From To

Price Target ZAc 27,000 ZAc 21,000

January peak, alongside ETF (-574koz) and Nymex (-288koz) drawdowns.

Valterra Platinum Limited

Platinum and rhodium balances stay in deficit despite rising BEV share, while (VALJ.J) From To

Price Target ZAc 131,000 ZAc 102,000

ample inventories limit S/D price spikes and support medium-term.

Sibanye-Stillwater (SSWJ.J) From To

Prefer Impala with market over-estimating operating leverage and under-

Price Target ZAc 5,100 ZAc 3,300

estimating the ability to backfill its medium-term production profile.

Gone into reverse. The 3e basket price has fallen 39% since the 26 January peak,

driven by a confluence of events, but principally, in our view, by a withdrawal of

speculative activity. We now see evidence of liquidation of speculative investment

that emerged in 2025. Platinum ETF holdings are down 574koz from peak and

Nymex holdings are down 288koz. Search data shows a collapse in interest. We see