Triple Net & Gaming REITs 2Q26 Earnings Preview | North America: Rising Investments, Improving Credit Reserves & Gaming Tenant Concentration in Focus; Raising FVR PT +17% to $21; Lowering VICI PT -18% to $31

Research evidence excerpt

Triple Net & Gaming REITs 2Q26 Earnings Preview | North America: Rising Investments, Improving Credit Reserves & Gaming Tenant Concentration in Focus; Raising FVR PT +17% to $21; Lowering VICI PT -18% to $31

IdeaMlikely decline, which matters given regional lease coverage is already a primary investor

concern. While the leases would transfer to Fertitta, the ownership change raises

questions around potential lease renegotiations and reduced tenant-level financial

scrutiny. We believe the loss of public tenant financial reporting warrants a lower

multiple.

4. MGM privatization may reduce public transparency, with Caesars and MGM

representing ~70% of leasing revenue. Caesars and MGM together account for ~70% of

VICI’s total leasing revenue, with MGM representing ~32% of annualized contractual rent

and CZR representing ~38%. of VICI’s annualized contractual rent. Reports of potential

MGM privatization therefore raise the possibility that both of VICI’s largest tenants could

become private companies. While we do not assume both transactions occur, we think the

market will increasingly underwrite a higher risk premium for VICI given the potential loss

of disclosure across most of the rent roll. For a net lease REIT, tenant credit transparency

is a core part of the valuation framework. Less transparency should translate into a lower

5. Las Vegas Strip revenue trends important given high concentration. VICI’s Las Vegas

Strip assets generated ~49% of total lease revenues for the year. We continue to view the

Strip portfolio as high quality, but stabilizing or improving revenue trends are key for rent

coverage levels and investor sentiment.

Why do we remain EW? The market may underappreciate VICI’s ~$650mn of annual free

cash flow after dividends.