How SpaceX touches everything in your TMT portfolio... and why investors need to form a view.

Research evidence excerpt

How SpaceX touches everything in your TMT portfolio... and why investors need to form a view.

IdeaM

Key Debate: Is SpaceX a genuine disrupter in Australia?

Market view: We don’t believe the Australian market has fully considered the

long-term risks to existing mobile and broadband providers.

Our view: Yes, we believe SpaceX will be a genuine disrupter in this market.

Whilst we are not making immediate changes to our estimates for FY26-27E, we

expect this will become a factor over the medium and longer term, likely from

FY28E onwards, as next generation satellites become effective.

We think Australia is an attractive market for satellite operators in general,

including SpaceX, to target for subscriber growth - both Broadband and Mobile

services. Why? The market's key characteristics include great land distances + low

population density + existing relatively high Mobile and Broadband ARPUs paid by

consumers. Of course, offsetting that, Australia is quite a small market with a total

population of 28m.

The best indicator of future success is past success. The industry regulator, the

ACCC, reported 552k Australian-based Starlink subscribers at end-2025, which

equates to approximately ~5% of global Starlink subs (SpaceX disclosed 10.3m

global subs at 31-Mar-2026). And those 552k subs at the end of 2025 represent

+86% growth vs. 297k at the start of 2025 and 375k mid-2025.

How does this impact our Telco/TMT stocks? A new competitor harnessing

newer technologies will result in a wider range of potential outcomes = higher

risk. As such, we think it appropriate to reduce our base case PTs for a number of

stocks: TLS, TPG, SPK and ABB. Furthermore, we factor in potential greater

disruptive impact on earnings + valuation into our Bear Case scenario for these