US Restaurants: Highlights from Expert Call on Restaurant and Grocery Traffic

Research evidence excerpt

US Restaurants: Highlights from Expert Call on Restaurant and Grocery Traffic

Global Research

6 July 2026ab

US Restaurants Equities

AmericasHighlights from Expert Call on Restaurant and

Grocery Traffic Restaurants

Dennis Geiger, CFA

Analyst

dennis.geiger@ubs.com

Consumer spending still pressured; improvement likely as gas normalizes +1-212-713 9313

We recently hosted a call with RJ Hottovy, Head of Analytical Research at Placer.ai, to Michael Lasser

discuss restaurant and grocery traffic trends, changing consumer food consumption Analyst

behaviors, and impacts from higher gas prices. Our discussion highlighted the state of michael.lasser@ubs.com

the consumer as mixed in recent months, with lower / middle income consumers pulling +1-212-713 2440

back on spending due to gas price sensitivity and looking for better value from grocery Mark Carden

stores, gas stations and C-stores, as well as dollar / discount stores. Our expert noted Analyst

consumer trade down became more prominent as average gas prices went above $4-5 mark.carden@ubs.com

per gallon, w/ visits at non-discretionary chains becoming more resilient, while online +1-212-713 3218

retail demand remained strong. Encouragingly, retail visit frequency bounced back in Paul Hao

recent weeks, likely as a result of gas price relief and easier compares. Our expert Associate Analyst

anticipates consumer retail traffic should continue to improve if gas prices ease further. paul.hao@ubs.com

However, restaurant traffic may still face challenges from food-at-home competition +1-201-352 1091

and GLP-1 drug impacts potentially, with more prepared meals from grocery chains and Nikhil Gunderia

food offerings from C-stores likely supporting a change in food consumption behavior. Associate Analyst