US Restaurants Positioned for a Better Second Half?

Research evidence excerpt

US Restaurants Positioned for a Better Second Half?

nding due to gas price and a focus

on better value from grocery stores, gas stations and C-stores, as well as dollar / discount

stores. Specific to restaurants, 1H26 industry traffic trends remained bifurcated as select

categories including specialty coffee, fast casual and fine dining led the growth, while

QSR and casual dining lagged.

...with expectations that 2H improves, but likely only a modest recovery

Looking to 2H, our call highlighted expectations that consumer retail traffic should

continue to improve if gas prices ease further. Easing gas prices should be a benefit for

restaurant demand, particularly for the QSR category, with the end of tax rebates likely

not a huge pressure (fine dining probably the greatest 1H benefit). However, restaurant

traffic may still face challenges from food-at-home competition and potential GLP-1

drug impacts, with more prepared meals from grocery chains and food offerings from C-

stores representing food alternatives. C-store food offerings were highlighted as a

disruptor for QSRs, with greater visit growth during breakfast (QSR likely losing share to

C-Store) and lunch dayparts. Expectations are for some improvement in restaurant

traffic in 2H from 2Q, but with gains anticipated to be somewhat limited, and traffic

unlikely to be strongly positive.

Smaller restaurant chains & independents improve in June; full-service strength

Consumer spending at small business restaurants was up modestly in June (+0.2% y/y),

improving from May (-0.6% y/y), per Fiserv. Average ticket was up 3.3% y/y, but

transactions were pressured (-3.1% y/y). Limited-service restaurants were pressured, w/

sales down -2.7% y/y and traffic down -5.0%. Full-service restaurants showed strength,