US Softlines Retail: Interactive Model: Use Quantitative Analysis to Create a Softlines Stocks Portfolio

Research evidence excerpt

US Softlines Retail: Interactive Model: Use Quantitative Analysis to Create a Softlines Stocks Portfolio

Global Research

6 July 2026ab

US Softlines Retail Equities

AmericasInteractive Model: Use Quantitative Analysis to

Create a Softlines Stocks Portfolio Retailers, Specialty

Jay Sole

Analyst

jay.sole@ubs.com

We perform a quantitative analysis to enhance our stock picking methodology: +1-212-713 3559

Our stock picking methodology includes combining our fundamental views with Mauricio Serna, CFA

quantitative factor analyses. Our work indicates the investment style most effective for Analyst

the current macro environment is one focused on “growth“ factors. This dynamic leads mauricio.serna@ubs.com

us to prefer Buy-rated stocks UAA, BIRK, BOOT, and GRGD over Neutral-rated BKE, +1-212-713 9028

CROX, GOOS, and URBN. Natalie Koltermann

Associate Analyst

How our quant analysis works: natalie.koltermann@ubs.com

We analyzed which factors have best predicted Softlines stock performance over the +1-212-713 4229

past 24+ years under different macroeconomic environments. We use four variables to Aditya Kulkarni

characterize macro environments: A) GDP growth, B) Inflation rates, C) Fed Funds rate, Associate Analyst

and D) Fed balance sheet. To decide which factors are likely to work best over the next aditya.kulkarni@ubs.com

three months, we perform six steps: 1) Take a view on how the four macro variables will +1-212-713 1098

trend over the next three months. 2) Look for a period in the past when the macro Serge Severenchuk

outlook was the same. 3) Note which quant factors worked best during that time. 4) Associate Analyst

Assume those factors will work again now. 5) Identify which stocks have the strongest/ serge.severenchuk@ubs.com

weakest leverage to those factors.