EM FI/FX Strategy: Asia: Three things to watch in the coming week

Research evidence excerpt

EM FI/FX Strategy: Asia: Three things to watch in the coming week

Global Research

6 July 2026ab

EM FI/FX Strategy Emerging Markets

Asia EmergingAsia: Three things to watch in the coming week

Teck Quan Koh

Strategist

TWD and dividend flow (through July) teck-quan.koh@ubs.com

+65-6495 4416

Taiwanese corporates are expected to distribute approximately US$3.7bn in dividends to

non-residents this week, and in total, $11bn over the month (largely in line with last Rohit Arora

Strategistyear). Key payment dates include 9 July ($3.7bn), 22 July ($1.0bn), and 31 July ($3.5bn).

rohit-b.arora@ubs.com

This year’s dividends could be exacerbated by the recent equity outflows (-$18bn in +65-6495 5232

June, -$24bn YTD). That said, with TWD already screening cheap on many metrics, and

UBS's optimistic outlook on Taiwan exports, we'd look to fade any meaningful spikes in Grace Lim

Economist

USD/TWD.

grace-k.lim@ubs.com

+65-6495 5965

KRW - Korean equities share in mandate declines, ADR listing

The KRW has underperformed EM Asia peers, declining by ~4.6% YTD as cross currents

from equity rebalancing and hedging flows weighed on the currency. The good news,

however, is that some of these headwinds are beginning to subside. Based on our

tracking, the weight of Korean memory stocks has fallen by ~3ppt since late June,

suggesting that the scale of index-related rebalancing flows that could otherwise

amplify KRW weakness has slightly diminished. At the same time, portfolio flow

dynamics have shown tentative signs of improvement, with average three day KOSPI

outflows narrowing from around USD3.4bn at end June to USD1.8bn more recently.

Looking ahead, we think any rhetoric or policy signals pointing to greater regional