Evonik Industries: 2Q26 preview: UBS e EBITDA 4% above consensus

Research evidence excerpt

Evonik Industries: 2Q26 preview: UBS e EBITDA 4% above consensus

he

12/27E 1.42 1.47 3 1.44

reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with continued uncertainty into H2. We therefore

12/28E 1.56 1.58 1 1.57

expect some moderation in earnings during H2, particularly in businesses that have

benefited most from recent supply chain disruption - noting a particularly weak prior Christian Bell, CFA

period (1H25 was -3% y/y, and 2H25 was -17% y/y), although earnings are expected to Analyst

remain supported in H2 by Animal Nutrition and cost-out initiatives. christian.bell@ubs.com

+44-20-7901 5493

What are likely areas of focus for investors? Priyanka Patel

(1) Sustainability Advanced Technologies: Focus will likely be on the businesses that Analyst

priyanka.patel@ubs.com

have benefited most from supply chain disruption, and the extent to which these gains

+44-20-7568 0016

are durable as logistics normalise. (2) Animal Nutrition: Management indicated

positive momentum should continue into Q3 with industry supply still remaining tight.

Any update on competitor capacity additions will be of interest noting known planned

additions from Adisseo (150kt from late 2026/early 2027), and Hebang Biotechnology

(600kt, construction expected to start 2026). (3) Asian competition: Spreads have

normalised significantly in many Asian value chains, commentary on whether this along

with logistics normalising will cause competition to resume to pre-conflict levels.

Valuation: We lift PT to €16 (prev. €14)

Our price target is €16 and implied 2026E EV/EBITDA is 5.8x broadly in line with the EU

Diversified sub-sector (5.9x).

Highlights (€m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 15,267 15,157 14,069 14,549 14,374 14,723 15,083 15,453