Postcard from the US: More Than Just the World Cup

Research evidence excerpt

Postcard from the US: More Than Just the World Cup

9.67 9.62

share gap versus Nike tends to narrow in markets with higher football participation,

12/27E 12.42 11.78

supporting adidas confidence in the brand’s long-term growth opportunity in the US.

12/28E 15.23 13.85

While profitability in the region remains below that of other geographies (North America

gross margin 45.4% vs. 50.8% for the Group), increasing scale should drive margin Robert Krankowski

improvement over time, not only through better trading terms but, more importantly, Analyst

through greater operating leverage. robert.krankowski@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 1152

Running is the long-term growth opportunity Zuzanna Pusz, CFA

As adidas enters a new phase of growth, characterised by a more balanced contribution Analyst

zuzanna.pusz@ubs.com

from both Performance and Lifestyle, the key area of debate remains the running

+39 027 2100 226

category (UBSe ~12% of sales). adidas expressed a notably higher level of confidence in

the sustainability of its momentum (up +28% in Q1 26), supported by a broader product

range and a more localised approach across regions. From a distribution perspective,

adidas also highlighted significant whitespace in the Specialty channel, where the brand

remains underrepresented. While gaining shelf space in this channel can be a lengthy

process, early results have been encouraging, consistent with feedback from our expert

calls.

Valuation: Buy, price target €219

ADS trades on 19.2x 2026E and 14.9x 2027E P/E, for 3-yr sales and EPS CAGRs (26-29e)

of +8% and +22%, respectively.

Highlights (€m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 21,427 23,683 24,811 26,478 28,418 30,774 33,304 36,048

EBIT (UBS) 200 962 2,056 2,474 2,969 3,495 3,960 4,478