Aluminium: Supply accelerating -> S&D deteriorating

Research evidence excerpt

Aluminium: Supply accelerating -> S&D deteriorating

dditional smelters under construction has caused us to increase supply forecasts from Associate Analyst

ethan.hong@ubs.comIndonesia. 2026: we forecast ~1mt of supply growth driven by ramp-up of: Adaro/

+1-212-649 8258

Alamtri, Xinfa/Tsingshan Weda Bay & Xinfa/Tsingshan Morowali. 2027: Based on

updated project pipeline we forecast a further >1.5mt in 2027 driven by ramp-up/ Andrew Jones

expansion of existing projects and new projects from Tsingshan Weda Bay, Nanshan Analyst

andrew-i.jones@ubs.comBintan & Harita in North Kalimantan.

+44-20-7901 6545

Lachlan Shaw

Middle East: We estimate ~3mt of annualised smelter output in the ME has been shut

Analyst

down/impacted by the conflict; ~1.5mt is likely to be an uncontrolled shutdown and lachlan.shaw@ubs.com

therefore production is likely to take >12m to return. Since the ceasefire reports are +61-3-9242 6387

emerging of restarts as alumina starts to flow through the strait; but it will take some

Levi Spry

time for more accurate assessment of the ramp-up profile in the ME.

levi.spry@ubs.com

Upside to China 45mt cap: UBS China team notes that 45mt is a approximate not +61-3-9242 6709

exact 'cap' and major producers are likely to moderately 'overproduce' if additional Sharon Ding

capacity comes from latest 600KA tech and or renewable power; therefore we expect Analyst

production to exceed 45mt by 0.5-1.0mtpa in 2026. However, we do not believe it is sharon.ding@ubs.com

likely that China will abandon capacity restrictions (resulting in 'unlimited smelter +852-2971 6284

growth' seen in 2009-17) in response to outages in the ME or medium-term. Igor Putra

Demand: Weak in 1H...potential for some improvement in 2H26 igor.putra@ubs.com