First Read China Hotel Sector June RevPAR likely to turn negative; Q2 might be flat-to-negative for major hotel chains

Research evidence excerpt

First Read China Hotel Sector June RevPAR likely to turn negative; Q2 might be flat-to-negative for major hotel chains

Global Research

6 July 2026ab

First Read

EquitiesChina Hotel Sector

June RevPAR likely to turn negative; Q2 might be China

flat-to-negative for major hotel chains Lodging

Xin Chen

Analyst

xin.chen@ubs.com

June RevPAR likely to slip into negative territory yoy +86-21-3866 8864

Based on STR weekly data and our channel checks, we expect China hotel sector RevPAR Ingrid Zhang

growth to turn negative YoY in June. This contraction is primarily attributable to adverse Analyst

weather conditions in southern China, elevated aviation fuel surcharges and persistent S1460517080003

consumption downgrading trend, all of which have dampened travel demand. The YoY ingrid.zhang@ubs.com

RevPAR decline during the Dragon Boat Festival exemplifies this headwind. By segment, +86-21-3866 8853

luxury/upscale segments may still deliver positive YoY RevPAR growth, but the Beini Du

momentum is significantly decelerating compared to May. Midscale and upper-midscale Associate

segments are projected to record RevPAR decline by c.7%/4% YoY, respectively, weaker S1460525090002

than May’s -4% yoy / +2.7% yoy. Economy segment, previously a resilient pocket, is also betty-za.du@ubs.com

expected to edge into the negative at roughly -1% YoY. +86-213-866 8753

Sukrit Friestad

Q2: RevPAR for major listed players to be flat-to-negative , missing consensus Analyst

For June, we expect RevPAR for major listed hotel chains to decline by c.1–3% YoY, sukrit.friestad@ubs.com

+662-613 5732

reflecting a sequential deterioration from May. Taking into account a low-single-digit

YoY growth observed in April, we expect Q2 RevPAR for major listed hotel chains to be