First Read Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc: Late-stage rare disease M&A tuck-in deal - looking to key Phase III data later in 2027 and catalyst-rich year ahead

Research evidence excerpt

First Read Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc: Late-stage rare disease M&A tuck-in deal - looking to key Phase III data later in 2027 and catalyst-rich year ahead

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 2.9%

Forecast dividend yield 0.0%

Forecast stock return 2.9%

Market return assumption 9.1%

Forecast excess return -6.2%

Company Description

Vertex Pharmaceuticals has four approved therapies (Kalydeco, Orkambi, Symdeko and

Trikafta) for cystic fibrosis (CF). Vertex is continuing developing the next-gen triple regimen

and mRNA therapies for CF. Beyond CF, Vertex's CRISPR/Cas9 gene-edited cell therapy,

Casgevy, recently received US/ex-US approvals in sickle cell disease and beta

thalassemia.Vertex's pipeline includes assets targeting: next-gen CF therapies, pain, IgAN,

APOL-1-mediated kidney diseases, Type 1 diabetes, myotonic dystrophy 1, and more.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

Our valuation is based on a PE multiple and is supported by our DCF sensitivity. Risks: We

believe the risks for VRTX shareholders include 1) competition to the core cystic fibrosis

franchise, 2) lower than expected sales for Casgevy in beta-thalassemia and sickle cell disease,

3) lack of approval/low uptake of suzetrigine in acute and neuropathic pain, 4) lack of

efficacy/safety concerns identified for povetacicept in IgAN and lack of indication expansion,

5) efficacy and/or safety setbacks in clinical pipeline programs.

Neurocrine Biosciences Inc:

NBIX: Our $137 PT is based on a 4.2x EV/'30E sales multiple. Downside risks include:

1) Ingrezza sales growth below our expectations

2) Potential set-back on early/mid-stage pipeline assets

Crinetics Pharmaceuticals Inc:

Our $55 price target is based on a 5.0x EV/Sales multiple, applied on our 2031E sales,

supported by DCF framework.