Daily Commodities Note: Lithium lifts, while BHP workers vote in favour of new enterprise agreement

Research evidence excerpt

Daily Commodities Note: Lithium lifts, while BHP workers vote in favour of new enterprise agreement

m. Since the Middle East conflict started

in Feb-26, thermal coal prices (high & low CV) in the Pacific & Atlantic have lifted by 20-

40%; this has been driven by higher gas prices and supply constraints from Indonesia.

The Middle East ceasefire has resulted in TTF & high-CV coal prices moderating, while

low-CV coal prices have held firm. Near-term, we see upside risk to thermal coal prices

with demand set to pick up seasonally with summer cooling (impact magnified by a

potential super El Niño event) and supply inelastic & potentially disrupted by Indonesia's

new centralised export policy. However, we expect prices to trend back to pre-conflict/

cost-support levels during 2027 with gas prices under pressure from new LNG supply

(note) & coal demand set to fall faster than supply due to ongoing decarbonisation

trends. Latest estimates suggest the 75th percentile in the cost curve has lifted to ~US

$110/t (gNEWC eq). Link to note. Source: UBS.

Boss Energy Limited - BOE achieved FY26 production of 1.41Mlb. BOE achieves

FY26 production1.41Mlb vs guidance 1.4-1.45Mlb and accelerates new feasibility study.

1.41Mlb implies ~365klb JQ26 vs UBSe ~380klb and w several milestones achieved

including IX Column 5 install. The acceleration of FS study to August +ve albeit much to

be derisked w regard to their proposed wide-spaced pattern. Link to note. Source: UBS.

South 32 - Agrees to divest Aluminium value chain to Alcoa: South32 has

announced the divestment of its aluminium value chain to Alcoa for a transaction

enterprise value of up to US$5.6bn. The transaction aligns with the commencement of

Matt Daley as CEO. It exits the more cyclical, capital-intensive downstream aluminium