Morning Expresso – Australasia

Research evidence excerpt

Morning Expresso – Australasia

Australian Supermarkets - UBS Supermarket Supplier Survey: 40th Ed.

UBS Supermarket Supplier Survey: COL again leads on survey scores vs WOW Food Retailers & Wholesalers

Our 40th Supermarket Supplier Survey (conducted 9-Jun to 29-Jun [Jun-26]) featured FMCG players

who provided current trading and outlook insights, rating COL (Coles Supermarkets) and WOW (Aust

Food) across 26 sub-categories on a scale of 1-10. Key findings: (1) Recent trading: Apr-May trading

favoured WOW over COL; (2) Market share next 6mths: WOW best placed to win share and IGA most

likely to lose share; (3) Market growth outlook next 12mths: unchanged at ~2.0% (Jan-26 ~2.0%);

(4) Inflation expectations (next 12mths): reduced to 2.6% (Jan-26 3.3%); (5) Non-food competition:

COL & WOW are changing price & range in non-food given share loss, but suppliers are investing more

outside of supermarkets (e.g. Amazon, Chemist Warehouse); 6) Price trust: Favours Coles over

Woolworths, EDLP the key way to address; (7) WOW Customer Offer Reset (COR) program: Primary

purpose deemed to be expansion of WOW margins at the expense of supplier margins; and (8) Survey

findings: Across 26 sub-categories, the COL average score was ahead of WOW (6.77 vs 6.31), retaining

its lead from Jan-26, Jun-25 & Jan-25, with COL leading in 24 sub-categories. Key areas of leadership

for COL vs WOW were in working in partnership with suppliers, morale & enthusiasm, and calibre of

senior management, while WOW had leadership for in-store theatre & effectiveness of catalogues.

WOW had the better Apr-May; WOW now best placed to win market share

Consistent with LFL sales growth from 2Q26 onwards as WOW cycles a weak 2Q24-1Q26, respondents

indicated WOW had a better Apr-May vs COL (52% Jun-26; 33% Jan-26).