European Economic Perspectives: European Central Bank Watch

Research evidence excerpt

European Economic Perspectives: European Central Bank Watch

Global Research

6 July 2026ab

European Economic Perspectives Economics

Europe including UKEuropean Central Bank Watch

Reinhard Cluse

Economist

What to expect from the ECB, BoE, SNB and Riksbank? reinhard.cluse@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 6722

The Middle East conflict has confronted central banks with new challenges, above all

higher inflation and slower growth. How will the ECB, BoE, SNB, and Riksbank respond? Franziska Fischer

EconomistECB: We expect the Bank to pause at its 23 July meeting before delivering a further 25bp

franziska.fischer@ubs.com

rate hike to 2.5% in September. However, our confidence in a September hike has +41-44-239 2054

weakened. BoE: We expect a prolonged hold with the next policy move being a cut (Feb

and Apr-27), not a hike. SNB: We expect the SNB to stay on hold at 0% until mid-2027, Felix Huefner

as the SNB views policy in a good place currently and would likely wait for higher

felix.huefner@ubs.com

ECB rates to weaken the CHF. Riksbank: With subdued domestic inflation pressures +49-69-1369 8280

despite the energy shock, we see the policy rate stable at 1.75% this year. In our view,

hikes would only become plausible if SEK were to depreciate sharply. Anna Titareva

anna.titareva@ubs.com

ECB: Rates on hold in July, confidence in September hike has declined +44-20-7568 5083

According to our baseline forecast, the ECB will pause at its 23 July meeting before

Reinout De Bock

delivering a further 25bp rate hike to 2.5% in September. However, in light of recent Strategist

geopolitical developments in the Middle East and the latest inflation data, our reinout.de-bock@ubs.com

confidence in a September hike has weakened. We will continue to monitor the data +44-20-7567 0152