US Daily Data Recap: Waller on forward guidance, ISM services at 54.0

Research evidence excerpt

US Daily Data Recap: Waller on forward guidance, ISM services at 54.0

Global Research

6 July 2026ab

US Daily Data Recap Economics

AmericasWaller on forward guidance, ISM services at 54.0

Amanda Wilcox

Economist

At a conference at the Bank of Italy today, Governor Waller argued in prepared remarks amanda.wilcox@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3899

that forward guidance can be valuable, and can "speed up policy transmission," but

warned that it should be flexible. He argued that when it becomes too rigid it can hinder Jonathan Pingle

policymaking, contending that the Fed's 2020 guidance effectively "tied the hands of Economist

the FOMC in 2021 and unnecessarily delayed rate increases."The next marker for jonathan.pingle@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2225

FOMC communications will be the June FOMC meeting minutes due out Wednesday.

See our preview on page 37 of the US Economics Weekly "We expect a bumpy H2." Abigail Watt

abigail.watt@ubs.com

Data today was light, but the ISM services composite slipped -0.5 points to 54.0 in June, +1-212-882 6929

in line with expectations. The new orders and business activity indexes moderated but

Jalen Nicholsremained decent, while the employment index returned to expansion territory after

three months below 50. The prices index eased, while the press release (link here) noted jalen.nichols@ubs.com

that "some respondents reported reduced prices paid for gasoline and diesel, but this +1-212-882 6905

was not seen across the board." The supplier deliveries index moderated, unwinding

some of the mechanical support seen in recent months.

We also recap recent high-frequency energy data below. The Brent crude oil price has

moderated to ~$72 per barrel as of this writing, down from $87 per barrel in mid-June,

and retail gasoline prices continue to ease.