Quilter PLC: Consolidation by flow

Research evidence excerpt

Quilter PLC: Consolidation by flow

36 14.64 2 13.99

among advised platforms' gross flows. Further, we see additional upside should gross 12/28E 15.89 16.13 1 15.43

outflows decrease in the coming years as interest rate reductions are expected albeit at a

slower pace than previously forecast (UBS expects the policy rate to fall to 3.25% for Michael Christelis, FIA CFA

AnalystFY26E and beyond from 3.75% at FY25). Importantly we believe our forecasts remain

michael.christelis@ubs.com

on the cautious side, implying largely flat platform market share based on Fundscape's +27-11-322 7320

"realistic" FY30E.

Nasib Ahmed, FIA

AnalystRobust double-digit earnings CAGR; Could Quilter Investors surprise positively?

nasib-za.ahmed@ubs.com

We trim our FY26E adj profit per share forecasts (-c3%) and make small increases +44-20-7568 8231

thereafter (c1-2%), after which we increase our forecasts slightly. We still see operating

margin expanding in line with management's target of >30% in FY26E and expanding

to c33% by FY29E. We remain broadly in-line with consensus for Adj Profit and

AuMA for FY26E but ahead of consensus from FY27E onwards (+c5% ahead of

company-reported consensus, c2% ahead of VA). We see a robust c11% CAGR in Adj

profit from FY25-FY30E driving the P/E down from the current c18x P/E to an

undemanding c15x by FY27E.

Valuation: Increase DDM-based PT to 235p/sh

We increase our PT largely resulting from rolling the valuation forward to 1 year out and

small adjustments to our COE (lower market-observed Beta). QLT currently trades on

c18x Adj profit after tax and interest (FY25) and in line with our long-term valuation

multiple (c15.5x, +12m).

Highlights (£m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Net earnings (reported) 42 (34) 120 119 144 163 183 214