China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp: 2Q revenue likely to slip into YoY decline; market concerns linger on consumer downtrading

Research evidence excerpt

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp: 2Q revenue likely to slip into YoY decline; market concerns linger on consumer downtrading

Global Research

7 July 2026abc

First Read

EquitiesChina Tourism Group Duty Free Corp

2Q revenue likely to slip into YoY decline; market China

concerns linger on consumer downtrading Recreational Products & Services

12-month rating Buy

12m price target Rmb89.28

Ongoing impact from consumer downtrading

We recently met CTG‘s management. Our key takeaways are: 1) 2Q revenue is likely

to decline YoY; 2) gross margin and net margin are expected to improve YoY in 2Q; and Price (06 Jul 2026) Rmb53.02

3) regarding overseas expansion, the company may enter Southeast Asia market under RIC: 601888.SS BBG: 601888 CH

the DFS brand. We estimate 2Q net profit could grow by over 10% YoY, with potential

Trading data and key metrics

upside exceeding 20% depending on the final net margin. The key market concerns

remain: 1) ongoing consumer downtrading could continue to weigh on CTG’s revenue. 52-wk range Rmb97.10-53.02

The sharp slowdown in Hainan duty-free sales growth in April-May versus 1Q suggests Market cap. Rmb110b/US$16.2b

the continued reliance on policy support to offset this downtrend. 2) consensus revenue Shares o/s 2,078m (ORDA)

and earnings estimates for 2026-27 may face downside risks; and 3) profit growth Free float 25%

driven primarily by margin recovery may raise questions about earnings sustainability. Avg. daily volume ('000) 37,656

Furthermore, the magnitude of earnings growth in upcoming quarters will heavily Avg. daily value (m) Rmb2,233.9

depend on the scale of government subsidies. Common s/h equity (12/26E) Rmb58.4b

P/BV (12/26E) 1.9x

2Q preview: revenue likely to decline YoY; but net profit may rise YoY Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) NM