Summer of Senior Housing: Part II: The 90% Rule

Research evidence excerpt

Summer of Senior Housing: Part II: The 90% Rule

FoundationM 85%-90% Early recovery; improving absorption but still Operating leverage becomes more visible.

below stabilized levels.

90%-95% Limited public history; management Key earnings inflection zone for Part II.

commentary points to better pricing and flow-

through.

95%+ Essentially uncharted in public portfolio data; Potential upside case for pricing and margin

REIT asset cohorts provide case-study evidence. expansion.

Pricing Power: The Signal Is Emerging

The pricing debate is the highest-conviction upside case but the least clean historical

regression. Recent trends are clearly better than the prior cycle: NIC primary-market rent

growth averaged ~4.8% since 2022 vs. ~3.2% during 2015-2019, and REIT average same-

store SHOP RevPOR growth averaged ~4.6% since 2022 vs. roughly 2.5% during 2015-

2019. However, the historical relationship between occupancy and rent / RevPOR growth

is not purely linear because the available data includes COVID disruption, different rate

strategies, market mix, operator mix, acuity mix, and limited 90%+ observations.

The absence of a clean occupancy-to-rent regression does not disprove the pricing thesis.

It narrows what can be proven with historical data. The more useful conclusion is that

current pricing power needs to be triangulated from three sources: recent market rent

and REIT RevPOR trends, management commentary on high-occupancy communities, and

evidence from high-occupancy asset cohorts.

Exhibit 1: NIC primary market occupancy vs rent growth Exhibit 2: REIT occupancy vs. RevPOR growth

NIC Primary Markets REIT Average Same-Store SHOP

8.0% 95.0% 8.0%

95.0% Senior Housing Stabilized Occupancy (AL + IL) Rent Growth (%) Occupancy RevPOR Growth YoY (RHS) 7.0% 7.0%