Asia Maxima - AI crescendo

Research evidence excerpt

Asia Maxima - AI crescendo

Equity Research

July 6, 2026

Asia Maxima - AI crescendo Asia Strategy

3Q/26

There is a growing risk of an intensifying questioning of the returns from soaring AI capex in

Includes:the US, particularly as the capex is increasingly financed by debt. Both the relative and absolute

performance of the hyperscalers’ share prices should be monitored closely. Asia Pacific ex-Japan relative-return •

asset allocationA sudden realisation by investors that the hyperscalers, and the likes of OpenAI and Anthropic,

Asia ex-Japan thematic equitywill not be able to make a return on their AI-related investments will trigger a sudden •

unwillingness to fund these investments. This will then be aggravated by the circular vendor portfolio for long-only absolute-return

financing arrangements between the main players in terms of suppliers financing customers. investors

Japan thematic equity portfolio for •

The long-term base case, or "end game", remains massive capital destruction in the US with long-only absolute-return investors

market share going to cheaper open-sourced Chinese large language models. Large language Japan dividend income portfolio •models will become commoditised in the context of the consumer market as reflected in China long-only equity portfolio •collapsing token prices, while virtually all the value in the now three and a half year old AI capex India long-only equity portfolio •arms race has so far been captured by the picks and shovels plays. Global long-only equity portfolio •

International long-only equity portfolioThe US ten-year Treasury bond yield remains the most important price in world financial •

markets, most particularly with the arrival of a new Fed chair and the potential for a test of (ex-US)