Updated EP Market Model; Healthy CY1Q Growth; MDT Gains; ABT Moving to Volt FMR

Research evidence excerpt

Updated EP Market Model; Healthy CY1Q Growth; MDT Gains; ABT Moving to Volt FMR

USA | Medical Supplies & Devices EquityJulyResearch6, 2026

Updated EP Market Model; Healthy CY1Q

Growth; MDT Gains; ABT Moving to Volt FMR

We are publishing our updated EP (AF/PFA) mkt model ahead of 2Q results.

WW market growth remained elevated in CY1Q at +21.3% xfx y/y vs 26.3% in

'25. We forecast '26E mkt growth of 15.5%, given law of larger numbers/tougher

comps and as PFA adoption matures, but see healthy DD growth ahead with a

tail of PFA uptake. We see MDT and ABT taking share due to more recent PFA

launches, with BSX and JNJ ceding share in '26.

1Q momentum was driven by continued PFA adoption, with all major cardio players now

offering competitive platforms in the US, following ABT's Volt launch and MDT’s Affera building

commercial traction.

Looking ahead, we model WW EP growth of 15.5% in FY26 and 12.6% in FY27. ABT, MDT, and

BSX guide to mid-to-high-teens growth in FY26, with ABT expecting to outgrow the market and

MDT targeting ~2x market growth, both driven by PFA launches and associated share gains.

From a mkt share perspective, we model BSX at 18.4% in 1Q and maintaining #2 WW EP share

at 22.6% in FY26, down from 23.7% in FY25, reflecting increased competition from recent PFA

launches, consistent with BSX’s 1Q commentary of greater-than-expected share loss.

MDT cited +8 pts of US share gains in 1Q (F4Q26) driven by Affera momentum; we model WW

1Q share at 18.3% (vs. 12.8% in 1Q25), with CY26 share growing to 15.8% (vs. 12.8% in FY25). We

forecast ABT growing ~17% xfx, ahead of market starting in 3Q and gaining +30 bps y/y, and see

BSX and JNJ losing share.

BSX reported +22% organic EP growth in 1Q (+18% US, +30% OUS), but mgmt acknowledged