MT 2Q26 Preview (30 July)

Research evidence excerpt

MT 2Q26 Preview (30 July)

EUROPE | European Steel

ArcelorMittal EquityJulyResearch6, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGEMT 2Q26 Preview (30 July)

With positive price/mix benefits, we see stronger sequential EBITDA across RATING BUY

all steel segments & model higher QoQ $2bn EBITDA (1Q26: $1.68bn) PRICE €56.90^

vs $2.1bn cons. We see 2027 upside (JEFe: $10.7bn +4% vs $10.3bn PRICE TARGET | % TO PT €65.00 (€62.00) | +14%

cons). With stronger regional trade protectionism (i.e. US s232; Brazil (flats); 52W HIGH-LOW €62.60 - €26.35

Europe CBAM and new TRQ from Jul-26), we see MT benefiting from FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 55.2% | 148.56

structurally higher mid-term earnings & multiples vs history. We continue to MARKET CAP €43.4B | $49.7B

prefer MT in risk-on upside scenario. TICKER MT NA

^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

2Q preview (30 June) - EBITDA of $2bn is -5% below $2.1bn VA cons: With 1Q, MT noted

it expects higher sequential EBITDA across steel segments, driven by prices & volumes. We RATING BUY

model $2bn EBITDA (1Q26: $1,679m), which is -5% below $2.12bn VA cons. N. America higher TICKER MT

QoQ EBITDA of $479m (1Q26: $383m) driven by higher US pricing (and domestic Canada/

PRICE $63.40^

Mexico), and higher vols, with further price/mix benefits expected in 3Q, given the time lag.

Brazil higher QoQ EBITDA of $429m (1Q26: $334m), with seasonally better vols and higher PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $73.60 ($73.20) | +16%

domestic price/mix due to trade support for flats (not longs). Europe higher QoQ EBITDA of

$651m (1Q26: $501m) with higher prices and vols, with energy hedge limiting cost headwinds. FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

Sustainable Solutions stable QoQ at $126m (1Q26: $124m). Other QoQ improvement to -$41m 2026 2027 2026 2027