Supportive Market Backdrop Likely to Sustain Earnings Growth at Nomura and Daiwa; Raise PTs

Research evidence excerpt

Supportive Market Backdrop Likely to Sustain Earnings Growth at Nomura and Daiwa; Raise PTs

Idea

July 6, 2026 09:40 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MBrokers & Other Financials | Japan Mia Nagasaka

Equity Analyst

Supportive Market Backdrop Mia.Nagasaka@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8406

Likely to Sustain Earnings

Growth at Nomura and Daiwa; Brokers & Other Financials

Japan

Industry View In-LineRaise PTs

Related report:

Investment Banks: 2Q26 Preview: A Strong

What’s Changed

Quarter (1 Jul 2026)

Nomura Holdings (8604.T) From To

Price Target ¥1,410 ¥1,710

Daiwa Securities Group (8601.T)

Price Target ¥1,520 ¥1,800

Wholesale and wealth management to drive earnings growth at

brokers. Prefer Nomura HD given greater exposure to WS,

although at the subindustry level we prefer banks over brokers

in view of the greater earnings stability.

Key Takeaways

We expect solid 1Q earnings. Look for brokers to continue outperforming near

term, but prefer banks at the subindustry level given more stable earnings.

External climate supportive for brokers near term: We lift forecasts and PTs for

Nomura HD and Daiwa Securities to reflect favorable market conditions and strong

F3/26 results. In wholesale (WS), capital market activity has been gaining

momentum both domestically and overseas, and we continue to expect earnings

growth. In wealth mgmt (WM), rising client assets should support recurring asset-

based earnings growth. Momentum remains strong, and we expect brokers to

continue outperforming near term. Among individual names, we prefer Nomura HD,

whose higher WS exposure should help benefit more directly from active capital

markets. But at the subindustry level, we prefer banks over brokers. While brokers