The Long View: PEXA Group

Research evidence excerpt

The Long View: PEXA Group

Australia | Technology & Information Services

PEXA Group EquityJulyResearch3, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGEIPART Proposed Price Cuts

IPART released a draft proposal for PXA's AU Exchange pricing over FY28- RATING HOLD

FY31. The impact is more negative to PXA than expected, proposing a PRICE AUD8.99^

20% decline to transfer fees from FY28, before returning to CPI-linked PRICE TARGET | % TO PT AUD9.30 (AUD13.60) |

price increases from FY29 onwards. There are also headwinds from lower +3%

52W HIGH-LOW AUD17.18 - AUD8.93

transaction volume forecasts (due to Fed budget changes) and uncertainty

FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 74.1% | 3.79

in the UK following management changes.

MARKET CAP AUD1.6B | $1.1B

IPART Draft Pricing Proposal. Today IPART released its draft proposal for PEXA's pricing TICKER PXA AU

^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

methodology. IPART has proposed a 20% revenue reduction for PXA (equating to $70m in noted.

annual revenue). IPART proposes national fees to be cut in real terms in FY28, then returning

to CPI-linked price increases annually from FY29. We expect that PXA will be able to phase the

cuts over 4 years beginning FY28, with the benefit of CPI. FY (Jun) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

2026 2027 2026 2027

AU Exchange impacts. We cut pricing by 3.3% per annum from FY28, equivalent to an REV NA <-1% -1% +4%

immediate reduction of 20%, before rising in line with CPI (est. 3%) over the following three EPS NA +1% +27% +38%

years. PXA's cost base is largely fixed, and hence the reduced volumes and pricing impact

PXA's AU margins, which we forecast to fall to 42% in FY33, from current levels of 55%. We 2026 (AUD) 1HalfA 2Half FY

expect PXA will implement some cost out from FY27 to mitigate the impact of the cuts.