Topics Du Jour: PPL FIDs Greenlight & Enters The West Coast Crude Pipeline Mix

Research evidence excerpt

Topics Du Jour: PPL FIDs Greenlight & Enters The West Coast Crude Pipeline Mix

Canada | Midstream EquityJulyResearch6, 2026

KEY STOCKS FEATURED INCLUDE:Topics Du Jour: PPL FIDs Greenlight & Enters

TICKER RATING PRICE TARGETThe West Coast Crude Pipeline Mix

PPL CN HOLD C$70.00

Was a big week for PPL. First, Greenlight's FID sported a lower-than-expected

build multiple, making the project even more attractive than we assumed and

bolstering the fee-based EBITDA CAGR. More surprisingly, PPL disclosed its

KEY CHANGES INCLUDE:

potential involvement in the West Coast crude pipeline. The relatively small

stake appears to have cost overrun protections and valuable optionality. We TICKER RATING PRICE TARGET

explore that project's economics and the many new developments as well. PPL CN HOLD C$70.00 (C$68.00)

Nice Build Multiple on Greenlight: On Thursday, PPL sanctioned the Greenlight power plant. FID

didn't slip much and the 2H30 ISD was expected, but the ~7x build multiple beat our estimated ~9x Exhibit 1 - West Coast Crude Pipeline

Estimated Economicsand likely buy-side expectations too. PPL's capex should be C$2.3bn yielding C$310m of EBITDA West Coast Pipe Economics C$mn

(backing out the C$190mn land sale reduces build multiple further). We think the low build multiple Guided capex (mid range) 39,450

suggests a favorable commercial agreement. Additionally, 85% of costs are fixed under a lump sum

EPC contract; we presume feed gas costs and O&M are passed through. We also assume a 20-year Average toll (US$/bbl) $9.00 USDCAD 1.40

contract length given PPL's disclosures in April. The customer's identity wasn't revealed (prior media Average toll (C$/bbl) $12.60

reports had named META), but it may come with the FID announcement for the data center. We now