China Economic Comment: Preview of June data: seasonal growth recovery in June, weak 2Q GDP growth, yoy PPI peaking

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China Economic Comment: Preview of June data: seasonal growth recovery in June, weak 2Q GDP growth, yoy PPI peaking

Global Research

3 July 2026ab

China Economic Comment Economics

ChinaPreview of June data: seasonal growth recovery

in June, weak 2Q GDP growth, yoy PPI peaking Yu Song

Economist

yu-za.song@ubs.com

+86-10-5832 8508

We expect some recovery in activity data in June, but 2Q GDP sequential will be Grace Wang

the lowest in years Economist

After a round of mostly weak data in April and May we expect some June data to S1460524050003

grace-zc.wang@ubs.comrebound. Part of this expected rise is seasonal. Months at the end of the quarters tend to

+86-105-832 8335

improve, especially when there are obvious downward pressures on growth. This is often

due to front-loading activities which comes at the expense of data in the following William Deng

month. March data strength and April data weakness was partially the result of this Economist

william-w.deng@ubs.comeffect.

+852-2971 6765

Jennifer Zhong

PMI data generally have not been good gauges of activity growth momentum this year.

PMI data were weak at the start of the year and became stronger in 2Q. Although S1460516050002

official hard data have their limitations, we think the underlying momentum is better jennifer-a.zhong@ubs.com

reflected by hard data instead of PMIs. The expected recovery in June hard data is not +86-105-832 8324

based on the performance of June PMIs.

The closely watched Qiushi policy journal recently published an article on the importance

of fixed asset investments. It explicitly addressed concerns over recent data weakness. In

terms of potential policy responses, the construction of more “good properties” was

mentioned twice alongside other investments such as the “six nets” (water, electricity,