US Economics Weekly: We expect a bumpy H2

Research evidence excerpt

US Economics Weekly: We expect a bumpy H2

Global Research

2 July 2026ab

US Economics Weekly Economics

AmericasWe expect a bumpy H2

Jonathan Pingle

Economist

Economic Comment: uneven, says Chair Warsh? Yes, it looks very uneven. jonathan.pingle@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2225

How restrictive is monetary policy at the current moment? "It's uneven," said Chair

Warsh, and a sentence later again said "it's uneven." Asked a second time, he said "the Abigail Watt

Economistbest way I can describe is, it’s uneven." We consider inside just how uneven. Like

abigail.watt@ubs.com

everything else, it's all about AI. The Economic Comment begins on page 3. +1-212-882 6929

Social security's looming insolvency gets a little more attention Alan Detmeister

The 2026 Trustee's report pulled forward the insolvency a year and widened the alan.detmeister@ubs.com

estimated cut to recipient benefits to 22%, over a fifth of a recipient's social security +1-212-713 1222

income. Legislation to raise taxes to address the shortfall now has a Republican co-

Amanda Wilcox

sponsor. The insolvency date is also now within the next President's first term. That Economist

makes the program's potential benefit cuts an almost unavoidable issue in the next amanda.wilcox@ubs.com

Presidential campaign. Could the US finally be forced to confront its fiscal outlook? This +1-212-713 3899

starts on page 5.

Jalen Nichols

Inflation news you may have missed jalen.nichols@ubs.com

The Bureau of Economic Analysis looks set to implement methodological changes that +1-212-882 6905

would on net lower PCE and core PCE inflation. Alan also published a note on the Pierre Lafourcade

impact of Apple's price increases. In case anyone missed the news, we summarize inside Economist

and offer links to the notes. pierre.lafourcade@ubs.com