N.A. Chems & Pkg

Research evidence excerpt

N.A. Chems & Pkg

Global Research

1 July 2026ab

N.A. Chems & Pkg’g Equities

North AmericaFun with Fertilizers

Chemicals, Commodity

Lucas Beaumont

Fun with Fertilizers Highlights Analyst

Review of NPK pricing: We review the latest NPK pricing trends below, within lucas.beaumont@ubs.com

we provide our price deck (Fig 1) and comparison of estimates vs. cons. (Fig 2), as +1-212-713 4809

well as a comp table for UBS’ Fertilizer/Ag coverage (3). Joshua Spector, CFA

Analyst

Nitrogen: 2Q pricing was generally weaker than we previously anticipated joshua.spector@ubs.com

(negative for CF, NTR, LXU). Ammonia came in modestly below our expectations, +1-212-713 6188

while urea has declined significantly since mid-April, with prices ~$110/MT below

Nicole Grueneberg

our estimates and falling below cost-curve support levels. UAN was more resilient

Associate Analyst

and exceeded our prior forecast, although we expect it to ultimately follow urea nicole.grueneberg@ubs.com

lower. The negative shift in the near term nitrogen market outlook now suggests +1-212-713-2469

larger seasonal declines in 3Q as demand has fallen ahead of expected further

Christopher Perrella

pricing declines. 4Q is more debatable, as when demand returns later in the year

on a more compressed timeline coupled with potential upside risks to the cost christopher.perrella@ubs.com

curve (European gas storage below typical levels) we could see a seasonal rebound +1-212-713 1443

in pricing for the fall/spring.

Anojja Shah

Natural Gas: Input cost trends remain generally similar to our UBSe and remain Analyst

supportive for U.S. nitrogen producers as U.S./Canada gas prices have seen a anojja.shah@ubs.com

+1-312-525 4310 limited response to the Middle East conflict. Ex-U.S. gas prices have recently eased