Off Grid Insights: Biomethane - The Molecule Follows the Contract (understanding Goias‘ market)

Research evidence excerpt

Off Grid Insights: Biomethane - The Molecule Follows the Contract (understanding Goias‘ market)

Global Research

3 July 2026ab

Off Grid Insights Equities

Latin AmericaBiomethane - The Molecule Follows the

Contract (understanding Goias' market) Utilities

Giuliano Ajeje

Analyst

giuliano.ajeje@ubs.com

Demand Comes First, Then the Molecule +55-11-2767 6371

Following a recent discussion with a senior sector expert, we came away convinced Henrique Simoes

that in a state with zero gas infrastructure and effectively zero commercial Associate Analyst

production today, the binding constraint is never the resource. For example, in the henrique.simoes@ubs.com

case of Goiás, the state holds the second- or third-largest biogas potential in Brazil, +55-11-2767 6308

yet commercial output is essentially nil. What unlocks investment is a captive, Julia Ongarato

state-created demand anchor - a bus fleet, a data center, etc - around which a Associate Analyst

fragmented supply base can organize. The "so what" for valuation: viability is julia.ongarato@ubs.com

bounded by geography and offtake design, not by installed potential, and any model +55-11-2767 6694

that extrapolates from resource maps rather than from contract books will

systematically misprice both the opportunity and the risk.

The Constraint Was Never Production - It Was Deliverability

Goiás sits long on potential and short on delivered molecules. The expert framed

roughly ~2 million m³/day of biogas potential, split into thirds across sugarcane,

agricultural residues, and urban waste, with ~80% of it concentrated within a 200

km radius of Goiânia. That radius is not incidental - it is the economic ceiling.

Beyond ~200 km, truck-based transport forces liquefaction, and the cost stack

breaks.