Strategy Update - Reassuring Earnings & FCF Prospects

Research evidence excerpt

Strategy Update - Reassuring Earnings & FCF Prospects

Update

July 3, 2026 04:19 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MKGHM Polska Miedz SA | Europe Ioannis Masvoulas, CFA

Equity Analyst

Strategy Update - Reassuring Ioannis.Masvoulas@morganstanley.comAlain Gabriel, CFA +44 20 7425-0427

Alain.Gabriel@MorganStanley.com +44 20 7425-8959

Earnings & FCF Prospects Ferdinand Huber

Research Associate

Ferdinand.Huber@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-2702

KGHM's strategy update unveiled 5-yr production, EBITDA and Adahna Ekoku

capex targets that were in line with our expectations. The Equity Analyst

Adahna.Ekoku@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0578

guidance offers comfort on KGHM's earnings and FCF prospects,

yet we seek further clarity on M&A strategy. Overweight. KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGH.WA, KGH PW)

Metals & Mining | Poland

Mid-term guidance - few surprises: The company has released its KGHM Group Stock Rating Overweight

Industry View In-Line

2055+ Strategy, unveiling its 2026-2030 guidance and articulating three strategic Price target PLN 416.00

priorities: (1) strengthening and development of know-how and of the business Shr price, close (Jul 3, 2026) PLN 335.00

52-Week Range PLN 396.40- 125.55

potential of the KGHM Group, (2) sustainable mining and metallurgical production Mkt cap, curr (mn) PLN 67,000

and (3) expansion and development of technology and innovation. The average Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* PLN 2,177

EV, curr (mn)* PLN 72,475

adjusted EBITDA of PLN12bn (real terms) was in line with our estimate, in real terms

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

and using the same commodity/FX assumptions. Meanwhile, we do not believe the

Visible Alpha consensus EBITDA estimate is comparable given the (1) higher

consensus metal prices and (2) limited analyst contributions.