KION Group (KGX.DE): Model Update

Research evidence excerpt

KION Group (KGX.DE): Model Update

KION Group (KGX.DE)

03 July 2026 Citi Research

KION Group

Valuation

We use an average of EV/EBIT multiple (70% weight) and DCF to Equity valuation (30%) to arrive at our Target Price of €46

(rounded). We value KION by using a multiple of 9x (2026e adj. EBIT), which implies a valuation of ~€43. For DCF to Equity, we

use a Cost to Equity of 10.6%, terminal growth of 2%, and through-cycle margin of 9%, which derives a valuation of ~€54.

Risks

Key risks to the achievement of our target price include: European exposure – KION has a high cyclical exposure in industrial

trucks in Europe, particularly in Germany. Any weakening of the European industrial cycle may be negative for the cyclical

components of the business. Pause in warehouse automation – There have been delays from customers in decision making in

warehouse automation. If this cycle prolongs further, the mid-term growth forecasts could be at risk. Success on margin targets

– KION’s profitability depends on execution on improvements in manufacturing footprint, truck platform design and SG&A. Any

inability to achieve these plans may be negative for earnings forecasts and therefore valuation.

If the warehouse automation rebounds earlier than our expectations, the stock could re-rate and positively impact the share

price. Any improvement in European macro, particularly Germany, could result in better short cycle indicators and hence the

truck orders. This could provide positive upside to trucks orders estimates and the share price.

If the impact on the company from any of these factors proves to be greater than we anticipate, the stock will likely have

difficulty achieving our target price. Likewise, if any of these factors proves to have less of an effect than we anticipate, the stock