Updating Earnings Forecasts: Strong Momentum Continues

Research evidence excerpt

Updating Earnings Forecasts: Strong Momentum Continues

Shifting toward beverage can stock, semiconductors, aerospace, and defense. The

slowdown in EV demand led to a goodwill impairment at UWH, but this weakness is being offset Chart 1 - UACJ Financial Targets: Expected to

by robust global can demand, particularly at TAA where supply-demand conditions remain achieve MTP FY3/28 targets one year ahead of

tight, and by a recovery in high-margin semiconductor thick-plate demand in Japan. Aerospace schedule

FY3/26 MTP Plan

and defense are emerging as key long-term growth pillars, supported by ongoing investments (¥bn) Actual FY3/27 CoE (FY3/28)

in thick plate and space-related products. Regionally, Thailand experienced a sharp profit SalesBusiness Profit 48.21,181.7 65.01,300.0 60.01,050.0

decline due to unfavorable currency and raw material cost movements, but management AdjustedROE EBITDA 12.2%88.3 109.08.1% 100.0≥9%

expects recovery through price pass-through and volume normalization. Key risks remain ROIC 7.1% 9.1% ≥9%

. D/E ratio 1.0x 1.0x <1.0x

Middle East-related cost inflation, potential demand disruptions, and intensifying competition Source: Company data, Jefferies

from Chinese producers.

Revising earnings forecasts. While UACJ’s FY3/27 guidance assumes LME aluminum at Chart 2 - LME Aluminum Price (3months) and

US$3.2k/t, ¥153/$ FX and Dubai crude at $90/bbl, our estimates incorporate a gradual UACJ4,000 Share Price 4,000

normalization in aluminum prices from around US$3.0k/t, ¥155/$ FX and crude at $70/bbl. 3,500 3,500

We expect continued growth in can stock shipments, particularly in Japan and Thailand, 3,000 3,0002,500

2,000alongside increasing semiconductor thick plate demand, with July price increases contributing 2,500

2,000 1,000more meaningfully in 2H.