NMC settlement positive; service outage appears temporary

Research evidence excerpt

NMC settlement positive; service outage appears temporary

Update

July 3, 2026 08:14 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc (DIFC Branch)+MAbu Dhabi Commercial Bank | EEMEA Shabbir Malik

Equity Analyst

NMC settlement positive; Shabbir.Malik@morganstanley.com +971 4 709-7057

Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB.AD, ADCB DH)

Top Pick service outage appears EEMEA - Banks & Fintech | United Arab Emirates

Stock Rating Overweighttemporary Industry View In-Line

Price target AED 17.00

Shr price, close (Jul 2, 2026) AED 14.48

What's new: Bank of Baroda (covered by Subramanian Iyer) has announced that it 52-Week Range AED 16.54- 11.58

has agreed to pay USD600mn to settle litigation brought by administrators of NMC Mkt cap, curr (mn) AED 108,513

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* AED 8,755

Health. This is potentially positive for ADCB and could boost sentiment if recovery EV, curr (mn)* AED 108,518

proceeds are confirmed. Separately, ADCB is dealing with temporary service * = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

disruption linked to ongoing system maintenance. At this point, we view the

disruption as operational rather than fundamental. We remain constructive on

ADCB.

NMC – potential recovery upside: We view the Bank of Baroda settlement as

incrementally positive for ADCB, which holds a cAED3.0bn investment exposure to

NMC, representing 38% of the exit instrument issued to NMC's creditors. Assuming

settlement proceeds ultimately accrue to exit-instrument holders on a pro rata

basis, ADCB's implied share would be cUSD225mn, or cAED0.8bn. This would

represent roughly c6% of our 2026 earnings estimate. That said, we would wait for

a formal confirmation from ADCB – we expect to hear more at the 2Q26 results

announcement – on the allocation, timing, accounting treatment and whether any