Cement 1QFY27 Preview: Vols steady, Price increase lag Costs

Research evidence excerpt

Cement 1QFY27 Preview: Vols steady, Price increase lag Costs

4,056 17.0 809 2

growth of ~2-9%. TotalHEIM 106,177752 (15.1)(4.7) 974571 75

. Grasim 5,954 54.8

Pricing improvement lower vs initially expected...: During 1Q, industry pricing came in weaker Source: Company; Jefferies

than earlier expected, as Cos continued to prioritise vols despite imminent cost pressures

in 1H. While prices saw some traction in April, most subsequent hikes were rolled back. Exhibit 3 - 1Q EBITDA/T to dip QoQ for most

peers as increased cost pressures (and neg

We estimate industry pricing to be up ~2.5% QoQ in 1Q (Flat to +1% YoY), versus earlier Oplev) only partly offset through better px;

expectations of 4-5% QoQ growth implying some risk to earnings, though cost pressures are EBITDA/T lower ~13% YoY

6,000

(Rs/T) 5,500incrementally receding with receding ME conflict. 1,6001,400

5,000

1,200 4,500

... though major cost impact expected in 2Q: On a per-kcal basis, fuel costs have remained 1,000 4,000

3,000largely flat across Cos so far. Some cost impact is expected to flow through in 1Q, with a more 800600 3,500 2,500

meaningful build-up in 2Q. Mgmts have guided for a cumulative cost increase of Rs300+/t over 400 2,000

1HFY27 (fuel, freight, packing), though costs are expected to ease thereafter. For 4Q, avg spot 1QFY212QFY213QFY214QFY211QFY222QFY223QFY224QFY221QFY232QFY233QFY234QFY231QFY242QFY243QFY244QFY241QFY252QFY253QFY254QFY251QFY262QFY263QFY264QFY261QFY27

petcoke was up 14% QoQ / 40% YoY, which should weigh on costs over 1Q-2QFY27. However, . EBITDA/T Realisation (R) Cost/T (R)

both petcoke / coal have recently softened (~15% off peak) on lower crude, & this should start Source: Industry; Jefferies

reflecting favourably in subsequent qtrs. Exhibit 4 - QoQ Changes in Cement Prices