Weekly Refining & Marketing Margin

Research evidence excerpt

Weekly Refining & Marketing Margin

Australia | Refining & Marketing EquityJulyResearch3, 2026

Figure 5 - ALD & VEA PE ratioWeekly Refining & Marketing Margin

20x

VEA ALD

Refining margins improved this week and remain well above historical 18x16x

14x

12xlevels. We expect crude and product supply normalisation to take some

10x

time and refining margins to remain above pre-conflict levels. Iran oil 8x6x

sanctions waiver should support regional margins as China's teapot Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Jul-26

.refineries lose access to discounted sanctioned crude imports. Gasoline Source: Factset. NB: 12mth fwd

retail margin weakness partly offset by strength in diesel in 2Q. We

published ALD & VEA 2Q preview this week. Figure 6 - Aus Refining SWAM - US$/bbl by qtr 39.9

34.5

24.6

20.9 19.9A weekly summary of refining & marketing margins across Australia & NZ - We monitor 23.8 21.7 23.4 16.7 23.6 18.8 16.4 12.6 13.6 14.2 14.2 16.8a Singapore Weighted Average Margin (SWAM), which we construct based on a typical

Australian refiner product slate, as well as a published Minas211 benchmark. Both metrics

have been highly correlated with ALD and VEA refining margins over time (refer to Appendix 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26*

for correlation). We also show individual product cracks and crude premia, as well as product .

Source: Jefferies analysis. NB: Based on a fixed pre-COVID

inventory. In addition, we monitor weekly Australian retail margin data from AIP, and NZ product slate. 3Q26 is period to date

importer margins from Government data.

ALD & VEA 2Q Preview - We expect robust 2Q updates, with very high Refining margins,