Mexico REITs: Resilient fundamentals regardless of USMCA outcome – Fibra MTY at Buy and Fibra MQ at Neutral

Research evidence excerpt

Mexico REITs: Resilient fundamentals regardless of USMCA outcome – Fibra MTY at Buy and Fibra MQ at Neutral

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02 Jul 2026 23:02:56 ET │ 27 pages

Mexico REITs

Resilient fundamentals regardless of USMCA outcome – Fibra MTY at

Buy and Fibra MQ at Neutral

Andre Mazini, CFA AC

CITI'S TAKE +55-11-4009-2017

We recently renewed our ratings after a period of Rating Suspended for five andre.mazini@citi.com

companies in the Mexican Real Estate Sector; FMTY is a Buy and FMQ is Piero Trotta

Neutral. We updated our models post the M&A activity where FibraMTY won

the bid for FIBRAMQ. While industrial market fundamentals are lukewarm +55-11-4009-7781

(mainly in the North), we see that companies are adjusting growth profiles piero.trotta@citi.com

to be more acquisition- vs development-based. Chinese tenants are Kiepher Kennedy

becoming important in the market, being the fifth-largest tenant +55-11-4009-2641

nationality, indicating that the tenant base could be gradually favoring

renting vs owing. Despite companies seemingly favoring acquisitions, kiepher.kennedy@citi.com

construction initiations are still hovering at 5m sqm per year, not too far off

from the peak of 7.5m in 2023. Regarding regions, Tijuana is particularly

oversupplied with vacancies at 16%, followed by Juarez at 9.1%, while

Mexico City is among the lowest at 4.1%.

Logistics demand outpacing industrial demand for first time in 10 years — We

show that logistics demand outpaced manufacturing demand for the first time in

2025 in over 10 years. We think this was due to a combination of: 1) rapid growth of

e-commerce, reaching 20% of retail sales and with Meli and Amazon responsible for

three out of the five largest lease-up transactions of 2025; and 2) hesitancy on

manufacturing demand given USMCA uncertainty.