JP Airlines: Lower Fuel Prices Supports Earnings; ANA System Disruption Clouds

Research evidence excerpt

JP Airlines: Lower Fuel Prices Supports Earnings; ANA System Disruption Clouds

Japan | Airlines EquityJulyResearch2, 2026

KEY STOCKS FEATURED INCLUDE:JP Airlines: Lower Fuel Prices Supports

TICKER RATING PRICE TARGETEarnings; ANA System Disruption Clouds

9202 JP HOLD ¥3,400

We revise FY3/27–28 earnings forecasts for Japanese airlines following 9201 JP BUY ¥4,000

FY3/26 results (HERE and HERE). Geopolitical risks have eased compared

w/ a month ago, and we lower our Brent assumptions to US$75/bbl in

FY3/27 (from US$80) and US$70/bbl in FY3/28 (from US$75). We raise our

KEY CHANGES INCLUDE:

FY3/27 EBIT estimate for JAL to ¥184.9bn (from ¥170.3bn) and our FY3/27

OP estimate for ANA to ¥175.1bn (¥164.2bn), reflecting a more favorable TICKER RATING PRICE TARGET

fuel backdrop. We continue to prefer JAL. 9202 JP HOLD ¥3,400 (¥3,200)

9201 JP BUY ¥4,000 (¥3,600)

Guidance and forecasts. We raise our FY3/27 EBIT estimate for JAL to ¥184.9bn

from ¥170.3bn previously and above company guidance of ¥180bn, reflecting lower fuel

assumptions and resilient international demand. For ANA, we raise our FY3/27 OP estimate to Exhibit 1 - Regional Market Share by Airline

¥175.1bn from ¥164.2bn previously and above guidance of ¥150bn, primarily driven by lower (Japan, incl. LCC | % of Weekly Flights)

fuel costs. Offsetting part of the upside, ANA is experiencing disruption following its May 2026 ANA JAL Others

domestic reservation-system migration, which has led to booking and customer-service issues

that we expect to weigh on Q1 earnings before resolution by end-July.

ANA operational disruption. ANA launched a major domestic reservation-system migration

29%

and fare-model overhaul on 19 May 2026. Management expects reservation, check-in and 39%