Download more steel

Research evidence excerpt

Download more steel

Australia | Materials (Steel)

BlueScope EquityJulyResearch2, 2026

COMPANY UPDATEDownload more steel

The DC build-out further supports US steel dynamics ensuring balance RATING BUY

remains tight in a tariff-centric market. Our estimates point to an PRICE AUD30.69^

incremental ~2mt of steel demand pa by FY30 driven by JEFe DC build-out PRICE TARGET | % TO PT AUD36.00 | +17%

phasing, or ~3.5% of US steel production. This further underpins spreads, 52W HIGH-LOW AUD34.14 - AUD20.23

with upside potential given tighter balance, providing a fav backdrop for FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 99.2% | 23.63

NorthStar until at least FY30. We re-iterate Buy, and note that our est sit MARKET CAP AUD13.5B | $9.3B

~15% above consensus FY27 EPS. TICKER BSL AU

^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

Average DC uses ~90t of steel per MW. Our steel intensity assumptions are based on an

assumed 3.5m sq ft for a 1GW DC (based on MSFT Fairwater AI DC 3.55m). DCs are fairly

steel intensive given requirements for structural framing steel (we assume 22lb/ sq ft), rackets FY (Jun) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

(5-8lb/sq ft), secondary steel requirements such as platforms and stairs (10lb/sq ft) and cable 2026 2027 2026 2027

tray equipment/pipes (10 lb/sq ft). On average this requires 58 lb/sq ft of steel, or ~90t/MW REV NA NA -2% NM

based on our 3.5m sq ft per GW assumption. EPS NA NA NM +17%

JEF DC build-out assumptions imply ~3mt pa of steel required by 2030. JEF's DC 2026 (AUD) 1HalfA 2HalfA FY

assumptions (here) illustrate significant ramp-up in DC capacity over the next 5 years, from EPS 0.87 1.02 1.89

8.4GW in 2025 to 27GW in 2030. This would see ~3mt of steel consumed for DCs in 2030, or PREV

an incremental ~2mt to current levels (Exhibit 1). EPS incl Minority