Divarasib Hits in Krascendo 1 - Big Hurdle is 1L Setting Next Year

Research evidence excerpt

Divarasib Hits in Krascendo 1 - Big Hurdle is 1L Setting Next Year

Switzerland | Pharmaceuticals

Roche EquityJulyResearch2, 2026

FLASH NOTEDivarasib Hits in Krascendo 1 - Big Hurdle is

RATING UNDERPERFORM1L Setting Next Year

PRICE CHF328.80^

Roche's divarasib met its endpoints in the pIII second-line Krascendo 1

study in patients with KRAS G12C-mutated non-small cell lung cancer PRICE TARGET | % TO PT CHF230.00 | -30%

when compared to first-generation agents adagrasib and sotorasib. In the 52W HIGH-LOW CHF374.90 - CHF243.90

second-line setting, the revenue opportunity is c.CHF1-2bn, which is 50% FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 86.8% | 466.13

reflected in consensus. The bigger opportunity would be in the 1L setting, MARKET CAP CHF266.1B | $329.2B

but that is a whole different ballgame. TICKER ROP SW ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

2L KRAS G12C market could consolidate: Roche announced that KRASCENDO-1, a Phase III

head-to-head study in previously treated KRAS G12C-mutated NSCLC, met both its primary

and key secondary endpoints. Divarasib demonstrated statistically significant improvements

in progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) versus investigator's choice of the

approved KRAS G12C inhibitors sotorasib or adagrasib. Roche stated that OS significance was

achieved at an interim analysis and that no new safety signals were observed. If the absolute

OS benefit is indeed meaningful (not disclosed yet), this market could go from a multi-player

setting to a single-player market. However, as this is a subgroup of NSCLC patients with limited

duration of therapy in the 2L setting, the revenue opportunity does not exceed CHF1-2bn, of

which c50% is expressed in consensus. Every CHF500m moves the NPV needle by c.0.5-1%.