2Q26 Preview: More Confidence on Growth Outlook: Spanish Banks | Europe

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Preview: More Confidence on Growth Outlook: Spanish Banks | Europe

Idea

July 2, 2026 03:30 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Europe S.E., Madrid Branch+MSpanish Banks | Europe Alvaro Serrano

Equity Analyst

2Q26 Preview: More Alvaro.Serrano@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ +44 20 7425-6942

Almario Sulaj

Research AssociateConfidence on Growth Outlook Almario.Sulaj@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2049

With the visibility in the Middle East improving, activity Banks

Europe

incrementally better, and the ECB hike last month we would Industry View Attractive

expect Spanish banks to talk up NII outlook for 2027E once the What’s Changed

mortgage book is fully re-priced. We upgrade our Earnings 3%, Bankinter (BKT.MC) From To

Price Target €15.00 €16.00

and see most upside in Top Pick Santander and Bankinter.

Santander (SAN.MC) From To

We forecast NII up 2.4% qoq driven by loan growth and seasonality. Its still early Price Target €12.30 €13.50

to see any impact from higher rates, but with the 12-month rate at 2.8% on average BBVA (BBVA.MC) From To

in Q2, we expect re-pricing to be a tailwind in Q3/Q4 2026, which together with Price Target €20.00 €22.00

improving loan growth should provide good visibility for bank management teams CaixaBank SA (CABK.MC) From To

to talk up NII in particular for 2027E. The improvement in visibility in the Middle Price Target €12.00 €13.00

East also reduces tail risks, with the combination of higher revenues, and lower Banco Sabadell (SABE.MC) From To

provisions driving our estimates 3% higher on average. Price Target €2.85 €3.00

UNICAJA BANCO SA (UNI.MC) From To

Activity levels continue to get better. The monthly data for April and May shows Price Target €2.40 €2.50

corporate loan growth at 3.8% vs.