Raising Estimates & PTs on Lower Fuel; CPA Remains Preferred

Research evidence excerpt

Raising Estimates & PTs on Lower Fuel; CPA Remains Preferred

Idea

July 2, 2026 02:05 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley México, Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V.+MLatin America Airlines | Latin America Jens Spiess, CFA

Equity Analyst

Raising Estimates & PTs on Jens.Spiess@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+ +52 55 5282-6614

Joao Pedro Franco dos Santos

Research AssociateLower Fuel; CPA Remains Joao.Pedro.Franco.Dos.Santos@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-9524

Gustavo Soares

Research AssociatePreferred

Gustavo.Soares@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-6075

What’s Changed Latin America Transportation & Infrastructure

Latin America

Latam Airlines Group SA (LTM.N) From To

Industry View In-Line

Price Target US$60.00 US$69.00

Copa Holdings (CPA.N)

Price Target US$160.00 US$180.00

Grupo Aeromexico SAB de CV (AERO.N)

Price Target US$26.00 US$28.00

Updating estimates to reflect Morgan Stanley’s revised oil

forecast, lifting 2026e EPS across Full-Service Carriers; 2027e

only modestly higher as we assume that lower cost will

eventually be passed through. We remain OW on all three FSCs

in our coverage, with preference order: CPA, AERO, LTM.

Key Takeaways

We are updating our estimates to reflect Morgan Stanley’s revised Brent

forecast: US$75/bbl from 3Q26 through 2Q27 and US$70/bbl in 2H27

Increasing our 2026 estimates on lower jet-fuel assumption — $3.62/$2.52/$2.25

per gallon for 2Q/3Q/4Q26 (avg. 2026 JF 6% lower than our previous

assumption)

2026e EPS increases ~7%/8%/18% for CPA/LTM/AERO; VLRS’ net loss broadly

unchanged at -US$191m (vs. -US$192m); 2027e rises modestly on partial fare

carryover

Post-revisions, we are above consensus for all 3 FSCs: CPA/LTM/AERO by

13%/15%/20% in 2026e and 19%/10%/43% in 2027e

Order or preference: CPA (OW), AERO (OW), LTM (OW)