StandardAero: Expert call: Aerospace MRO focus #2

Research evidence excerpt

StandardAero: Expert call: Aerospace MRO focus #2

industry demand occurring around 2028-2030 before gradually declining.

CFM56 turnaround times were not given but Cusack does not expect

meaningful improvement near-term.

CFM56 typically reaches 20,000 cycles with two major shop visits, reflecting a

more mature engine profile than LEAP (see below).

LEAP has yet to experience a large wave of heavy shop visits. Early maintenance

activity remains concentrated in quick turns (~3,500 cycles) costing roughly $1.5-2

million.

LEAP maintenance is expected to follow a three-visit profile before LLP limits:

Quick turn (~3,500 cycles)

Addressing HPT Stage 1 disc limitations and introduction of durability

kits (more scope vs initial expectations)

PRSV (~12,000 cycles)

HPT/LLP replacement (~17,000-18,000 cycles)

Following the first three LEAP visits, Cusack expects the engine to

transition toward a more stable two-event rhythm, with shop visits occurring

roughly every 8,500-9,500 cycles for performance restoration and LLP-driven

work.

LEAP vs. CFM56 Economics & Market

LEAP LLP content has more advanced technological features and is more

expensive, while CFM56 benefits from a more mature repair and overhaul

ecosystem. Cusack does not expect the cost of LEAP ownership to be lower than

CFM56.

Especially when considering one additional shop visit during the first LLP

lifecycle run vs CFM56.

A heavy CFM56 shop visit can cost roughly $12-13 million, including:

$6-6.5 million of LLP hardware

~$6 million of labor, repair work, non-LLP hardware & other

Operators are increasingly adopting modular shop visits, splitting

maintenance into smaller work scope visits to better manage costs while

maintaining similar cycle life. ie: more opportunity for third-party shops.