SSR Mining: Value trap or re-rating to come?

Research evidence excerpt

SSR Mining: Value trap or re-rating to come?

s at Seabee & maybe Marigold

12/26E

2Q26: See Figure 1 for a detailed earnings preview. SSR guide to 40-45% 1H UBS Cons.

weighting, implying ~100koz AuEq in Q2 and positioning this quarter as the Q1 1.15 1.15

trough. We expect consensus downgrades over coming weeks (112koz consensus Q2E 0.75 0.76

& 100koz UBSe). Q2 weakness is broad: CC&V is expected to step down q/q Q3E 1.29 1.15

following a strong 1Q, Marigold also moderates sequentially on grade and Q4E 1.72 1.42

sequencing. Seabee should improve q/q, but remains impacted by seasonality, 12/26E 5.07 4.51

SSR reiterate guidance at all segments but it's tracking well below 60-70koz 12/27E 5.31 4.95

guidance with elevated 1H costs (ice road & logistics), while Puna is broadly flat q/ 12/28E 4.26 4.62

q. Overall, lower volumes imply higher unit costs in Q2 ahead of a more

George Eadie

meaningful pickup in 2H across all assets. Analyst

FY26: Guidance remains 450-535koz AuEq vs consensus 497koz & UBSe 485koz. george.eadie@ubs.com

+1-646-996 4596

We see risks to Seabee for guidance and Marigold just reaching the lower end,

even with a modest 2H step-up. Further out, Marigold normalization >200kozpa Daniel Major

remains key, we think 222kozpa consensus next year is still too high, but look to Analyst

more details on this asset later this year with the next technical report. daniel.major@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 3472

Balance sheet + FCF offers flexibility to grow & return Myles Allsop

The balance sheet is clearly robust and while consensus does not reflect this yet, Analyst

including the royalty portfolio, there is $2bn across cash + royalties. Management’s myles.allsop@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 1693capital allocation views are unchanged, M&A is framed as opportunistic and IRR-driven