European Economic Perspectives: UBS Evidence Lab inside: Rebound in capex plans

Research evidence excerpt

European Economic Perspectives: UBS Evidence Lab inside: Rebound in capex plans

8. Wage expectations remain elevated: Wage expectations remained broadly

unchanged at elevated levels, arguing for a risk of second-round inflation effects from

the latest energy price shock. This is one reason why we expect another 25bp ECB rate

hike to 2.5% in September.

9. Conflicting signals regarding pricing power: The net balance of firms expecting

to be able to pass on these higher wage costs to customers increased in Q2-26, while

overall pricing power expectations worsened. This is a tension that we had already

observed in previous editions of the survey.

10. Profit margins below average but stable: Profit margin expectations remained

stable overall, albeit with divergence across countries and sectors, and continued

pressure on SMEs.

Figure 3: Net balance of firms (%) expecting an increase/improvement in Q2-26; change from previous survey

Net b alance of fir ms (% ) exp ectin g an inc rease/impro vement in

Q2-2 6; cha nge fr om previ ous su rve y

Source: UBS Evidence Lab (> Access Dataset). Note: The difference in the changes reported in charts and text below is due to rounding.

Equity Strategy: Still theme-rich, index-unexciting

Europe still looks theme-rich but index-unexciting (link). The market has recovered

above our 630 Stoxx 600 target, while the macro regime has become less supportive.

The OECD CLI has rolled into slowdown, PMIs remain weak, economic surprises are

negative and inflows have stalled. At the same time, consensus still expects roughly

~16% EPS growth in 2026, with upgrades concentrated in energy, mining, semis and

financials, leaving broader earnings exposed if input-cost pressure persists. Earnings

season points to a more disciplined corporate playbook.